Wissenschaftliche Wahlprognosen – Alternative oder Ergänzung zu Umfragen?

Arndt Leininger

doi:10.5771/0340-1758-2015-4-675

Contents
- Chapter Expand | CollapseAuthorsPage
- Titelei/Inhaltsverzeichnis
- 673–674 EDITORIAL 673–674
- 675–829 DOKUMENTATION UND ANALYSEN 675–829
  - 675–691 Wissenschaftliche Wahlprognosen – Alternative oder Ergänzung zu Umfragen? Arndt Leininger Arndt Leininger 675–691
  - 692–707 Zur Wahrnehmung und Glaubwürdigkeit von Umfragen aus Sicht der Bürger: Ein Test zweier notwendiger Bedingungen für Umfrageeffekte Thorsten Faas Thorsten Faas 692–707
  - 708–729 Wahlumfragen und der Willensbildungsprozess der Wähler im Vorfeld der Bundestagswahl 2013 Hanna Hoffmann Hanna Hoffmann 708–729
  - 730–745 Alles eine Frage der Umfragen? Ursachen von Koalitionserwartungen im Bundestagswahlkampf 2013 Thomas Zerback, Carsten Reinemann Thomas Zerback, Carsten Reinemann 730–745
  - 746–759 Haben die Demoskopen die FDP aus dem Bundestag vertrieben? Ergebnisse einer experimentellen Studie Thorsten Faas, Sascha Huber Thorsten Faas, Sascha Huber 746–759
  - 760–777 Staatliche Regulierung und die Freiheit der Umfrageforschung weltweit Thomas, Petersen Thomas, Petersen 760–777
  - 778–794 Auf dem Wege zur europäischen Gewaltenverschränkung: der Deutsche Bundestag während der Eurozonenkrise Timm Beichelt Timm Beichelt 778–794
  - 795–809 Institutionelle Regeln oder politische Kultur? Faktoren der parlamentarischen Mitgliederfluktuation in der Schweiz Antoinette Feh Widmer, Adrian Vatter Antoinette Feh Widmer, Adrian Vatter 795–809
  - 810–819 Zum Rederecht von Liedermachern – Durfte Wolf Biermann im Deutschen Bundestag reden, obwohl er singen sollte? Christoph Smets Christoph Smets 810–819
  - 820–829 Die zeitliche Begrenzung des Untersuchungsausschusses Björn-Christian Kleih und, Christine Rex Björn-Christian Kleih und, Christine Rex 820–829
- 830–886 AUFSÄTZE 830–886
  - 830–851 Halbzeit: Die Entwicklung des Parteiensystems nach der Bundestagswahl 2013 Oskar Niedermayer Oskar Niedermayer 830–851
  - 852–873 Das Management der dritten Großen Koalition in Deutschland 2013 bis 2015: unangefochtene Dominanz der drei Parteivorsitzenden Patrick Horst Patrick Horst 852–873
  - 874–886 Anmerkungen zur Koalitionsdemokratie und ein Plädoyer für die Beendigung des Lagerdenkens Ingo von Münch Ingo von Münch 874–886
- 887–906 REZENSIONEN 887–906
- 907–916 MITTEILUNG 907–916
  - 907–910 Populismus in Europa – Konsequenzen für Parteien und Parlamente. Eine Veranstaltung der DVParl am 29. Juni 2015 in Berlin Philipp Kahlert Philipp Kahlert 907–910
  - 911–916 ABSTRACTS . 911–916
Durchsuchen Sie das Werk
Geben Sie ein Keyword in die Suchleiste ein
No access

ZParl Zeitschrift für Parlamentsfragen , page 675 - 691

Wissenschaftliche Wahlprognosen – Alternative oder Ergänzung zu Umfragen?

Autoren

Arndt Leininger

DOI
- doi.org/10.5771/0340-1758-2015-4-675
- ISSN: 0340-1758
- ISSN online: 0340-1758
Zusammenfassung

In the run up to the German federal election of 2013, forecasts about who would win attracted considerable attention. Leaving casual punditry aside, the more serious forecasts were predominantly based on opinion polls. Polls offer a good snapshot in time, but when the election is distant, they predict outcomes less well – a point stressed by pollsters themselves but often ignored by the media and the wider public. However, the 2013 election also saw an unprecedented number of scientific forecasting models that explicitly aimed at forecasting the election result, in some cases months in advance. This overview of scientific election forecasting in Germany focuses on so called structural models. These utilize theory and empirics of electoral research for their predictions. Furthermore, survey aggregation methods as well as synthetic models that combine these with structural models are covered and the performance of such approaches is discussed in the context of the German general election in 2013 and address the question what, if anything, scientific election forecasting can contribute to electoral research. [ZParl, vol. 46 (2015), no. 4, pp. 675 – 691]

Abstract

In the run up to the German federal election of 2013, forecasts about who would win attracted considerable attention. Leaving casual punditry aside, the more serious forecasts were predominantly based on opinion polls. Polls offer a good snapshot in time, but when the election is distant, they predict outcomes less well – a point stressed by pollsters themselves but often ignored by the media and the wider public. However, the 2013 election also saw an unprecedented number of scientific forecasting models that explicitly aimed at forecasting the election result, in some cases months in advance. This overview of scientific election forecasting in Germany focuses on so called structural models. These utilize theory and empirics of electoral research for their predictions. Furthermore, survey aggregation methods as well as synthetic models that combine these with structural models are covered and the performance of such approaches is discussed in the context of the German general election in 2013 and address the question what, if anything, scientific election forecasting can contribute to electoral research. [ZParl, vol. 46 (2015), no. 4, pp. 675 – 691]
Share