U.S.-Russian strategic arms control faces an uncertain future. The post-Cold War nadir in relations, questions about compliance with the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, modernization programs and doctrinal questions pose challenges to the future of the strategic arms control regime. One possibility is that it ends in 2021 when the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) expires. A more ambitious approach could provide for further reductions but would require resolving questions where the two countries have substantial differences. Perhaps the best to hope for is New START’s extension to 2026, which will give all sides time to explore what comes next.
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