Zur Wahrnehmung und Glaubwürdigkeit von Umfragen aus Sicht der Bürger: Ein Test zweier notwendiger Bedingungen für Umfrageeffekte

Thorsten Faas

doi:10.5771/0340-1758-2015-4-692

Contents
- Chapter Expand | CollapseAuthorsPage
- Titelei/Inhaltsverzeichnis
- 673–674 EDITORIAL 673–674
- 675–829 DOKUMENTATION UND ANALYSEN 675–829
  - 675–691 Wissenschaftliche Wahlprognosen – Alternative oder Ergänzung zu Umfragen? Arndt Leininger Arndt Leininger 675–691
  - 692–707 Zur Wahrnehmung und Glaubwürdigkeit von Umfragen aus Sicht der Bürger: Ein Test zweier notwendiger Bedingungen für Umfrageeffekte Thorsten Faas Thorsten Faas 692–707
  - 708–729 Wahlumfragen und der Willensbildungsprozess der Wähler im Vorfeld der Bundestagswahl 2013 Hanna Hoffmann Hanna Hoffmann 708–729
  - 730–745 Alles eine Frage der Umfragen? Ursachen von Koalitionserwartungen im Bundestagswahlkampf 2013 Thomas Zerback, Carsten Reinemann Thomas Zerback, Carsten Reinemann 730–745
  - 746–759 Haben die Demoskopen die FDP aus dem Bundestag vertrieben? Ergebnisse einer experimentellen Studie Thorsten Faas, Sascha Huber Thorsten Faas, Sascha Huber 746–759
  - 760–777 Staatliche Regulierung und die Freiheit der Umfrageforschung weltweit Thomas, Petersen Thomas, Petersen 760–777
  - 778–794 Auf dem Wege zur europäischen Gewaltenverschränkung: der Deutsche Bundestag während der Eurozonenkrise Timm Beichelt Timm Beichelt 778–794
  - 795–809 Institutionelle Regeln oder politische Kultur? Faktoren der parlamentarischen Mitgliederfluktuation in der Schweiz Antoinette Feh Widmer, Adrian Vatter Antoinette Feh Widmer, Adrian Vatter 795–809
  - 810–819 Zum Rederecht von Liedermachern – Durfte Wolf Biermann im Deutschen Bundestag reden, obwohl er singen sollte? Christoph Smets Christoph Smets 810–819
  - 820–829 Die zeitliche Begrenzung des Untersuchungsausschusses Björn-Christian Kleih und, Christine Rex Björn-Christian Kleih und, Christine Rex 820–829
- 830–886 AUFSÄTZE 830–886
  - 830–851 Halbzeit: Die Entwicklung des Parteiensystems nach der Bundestagswahl 2013 Oskar Niedermayer Oskar Niedermayer 830–851
  - 852–873 Das Management der dritten Großen Koalition in Deutschland 2013 bis 2015: unangefochtene Dominanz der drei Parteivorsitzenden Patrick Horst Patrick Horst 852–873
  - 874–886 Anmerkungen zur Koalitionsdemokratie und ein Plädoyer für die Beendigung des Lagerdenkens Ingo von Münch Ingo von Münch 874–886
- 887–906 REZENSIONEN 887–906
- 907–916 MITTEILUNG 907–916
  - 907–910 Populismus in Europa – Konsequenzen für Parteien und Parlamente. Eine Veranstaltung der DVParl am 29. Juni 2015 in Berlin Philipp Kahlert Philipp Kahlert 907–910
  - 911–916 ABSTRACTS . 911–916
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ZParl Zeitschrift für Parlamentsfragen , page 692 - 707

Zur Wahrnehmung und Glaubwürdigkeit von Umfragen aus Sicht der Bürger: Ein Test zweier notwendiger Bedingungen für Umfrageeffekte

Autoren

Thorsten Faas

DOI
- doi.org/10.5771/0340-1758-2015-4-692
- ISSN: 0340-1758
- ISSN online: 0340-1758
Zusammenfassung

a considerable impact on voters (and in turn on election results). However, research in this field should analyze the necessary conditions for poll effects in more detail in order to understand these postulated impacts. Opinion polls can only affect voters if voters consciously take notice of them and if they are perceived as being credible. The results from examining two opinion polls from the election years 2009 and 2013 show that in 2009, but especially in 2013, opinion polls were consciously registered by many, yet not all, people in Germany. In terms of credibility, however, opinions were more diverse. Political interest was identified as having the strongest impact on whether people consciously took notice of opinion polls or not. Moreover, the consumption of public television news as well as a higher level of formal education has a positive influence. The election year 2013 also shows some party political effects. Trying to identify perceived credibility was less successful. Only supporters of the CDU and CSU found the poll results more credible in both years. In addition, personality traits show effects for 2009. [ZParl, vol. 46 (2015), no. 4, pp. 692 – 707]

Abstract

a considerable impact on voters (and in turn on election results). However, research in this field should analyze the necessary conditions for poll effects in more detail in order to understand these postulated impacts. Opinion polls can only affect voters if voters consciously take notice of them and if they are perceived as being credible. The results from examining two opinion polls from the election years 2009 and 2013 show that in 2009, but especially in 2013, opinion polls were consciously registered by many, yet not all, people in Germany. In terms of credibility, however, opinions were more diverse. Political interest was identified as having the strongest impact on whether people consciously took notice of opinion polls or not. Moreover, the consumption of public television news as well as a higher level of formal education has a positive influence. The election year 2013 also shows some party political effects. Trying to identify perceived credibility was less successful. Only supporters of the CDU and CSU found the poll results more credible in both years. In addition, personality traits show effects for 2009. [ZParl, vol. 46 (2015), no. 4, pp. 692 – 707]
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