Future NATO Enlargement

Mark F. Cancian

doi:10.5771/9781538140420

Future NATO Enlargement

Force Requirements and Budget Costs

1. Auflage 2022

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doi.org/10.5771/9781538140420
ISBN print: 978-1-5381-4041-3
ISBN online: 978-1-5381-4042-0
Rowman & Littlefield, Lanham Rowman & Littlefield, Lanham

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Abstract

Past NATO enlargement helped create a Europe whole, free, and at peace, but future enlargement, should it occur, faces a hostile and militarily revitalized Russia. This report examines the military requirements and resulting budget costs of extending NATO’s Article 5 commitment to countries such as Ukraine, Georgia, or Bosnia-Herzegovina, which are actively seeking NATO membership, and Sweden and Finland, about which there has been analysis and speculation about membership. Costs to the United States range from $11 billion per year to defend Ukraine to half a billion dollars or less to defend Sweden. The project recommends that NATO incorporate force requirements and cost considerations into its future decisionmaking.

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Preface
1–11 1 Why This Project? Why This Project? Why This Project? 1–11
12–22 2 NATO Membership: Cold War Stability Followed by Post–Cold War Enlargement 12–22
23–26 3 Russian Military Capabilities Today 23–26
27–34 4 The Current State of NATO Forces and Military Budgets 27–34
35–38 5 Defending Recently Joined Members: Learning from History 35–38
39–44 6 Defending Potential Future Members: Forces and Budget Costs 39–44
45–63 7 Georgia 45–63
64–77 8 Ukraine 64–77
78–84 9 Bosnia and Herzegovina 78–84
85–94 10 Sweden 85–94
95–103 11 Finland 95–103
104–106 12 NATO Enlargement and Potential Actions 104–106
107–107 About the Authors 107–107

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